2001 December

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updated: 2016-11-06
2001 December
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  "Freedom is frustrating.   You have to work at it." --- Newt Gingrich
(quoted in Richard E. Cohen 1994-09-24 "Hurricane Newt" _National Journal_ v26#39 pp 2198-2202)





John Sumser_Electronic Recruiting News_
Electronic Recruiting Index 2002
executive summary (pdf)


_BLS_/_Los Angeles Times_ pg A1

San Jose27.3K
St. Louis16.5K

D. Mark Wilson _Heritage Foundation BackGrounder_ #1506 & _Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies_
What Congress Should Do to Ease the Impact of the Recession on UnEmployed Workers
"In 2001 October, the average duration of unemployment was 13 weeks -- up from 12.4 weeks a year ago, but just one-half the length of time (26 weeks) that regular state UI benefits are available.   One-half of unemployed workers had been without a job for less than 8 weeks, & 11.4% (888K) had been unemployed for 27 weeks or more."
NBER says recession that troughed in 2001 April ended 2001 November.   The stock market crashed 2000-03-10.   The STEM job markets were already diving by 2000 September, and general job markets in mid-2001.   STEM product sales were tanking all through 2001 and 2002.   Job markets still had not fully recovered by the end of 2016.


2001-12-04 19:45PST (2001-12-04 22:45EST) (2001-12-05 03:45GMT)
_USA Today_
Tech firms' hiring practices ignore idle Americans
"In the past 10 months, the dot-com industry alone has seen almost 100K lay-offs.   At the same time, tech companies got government approval to sponsor a near record number of foreign-born workers under a special visa program called H-1B...
  their pursuit of foreign workers when so many highly qualified Americans are unemployed gives the lie to that excuse.
  It looks more like the tech industry is just trying to keep its labor costs down by importing cheaper labor...   That helped the industry keep wage costs down.   Data from the Immigration and Naturalization Service show, in fact, that these immigrant workers were making about $50K a year, well below the average pay for their jobs.   A National Research Council report last year found that the large number of these workers helped keep wages 'from rising as fast as might be expected'.
  Incredibly, in the midst of the current slump, with thousands of engineers and programmers sitting idle, the tech industry continues to trot out the same claims about a lack of skilled workers to justify the surge in visa applications.   True, the US could turn out more computer programmers and top engineers.   Also true, however, is that there is plenty of good home-grown talent sitting idle."

Linda Rosencrance _IDG_
Telecom industry hit hard by job cuts in November

_Silicon Valley/San Jose Business Journal_
November lay-offs top 180K
"November announced job cuts of 181,412 showed a decline of 25% from October's 242,192, according to a monthly report issued today by Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc., an international out-placement firm...
  Since September 11, 624,411 job cuts have been announced, according to Challenger's figures.   That is more than the 12-month totals for 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996 or 1997 and only 11K fewer than in all of 2000.
  Job cuts last month were 137,260 or 311% higher than in 2000 November when the figure was 44,152.   In 2001, each month has exceeded the same month in 2000 by an average of 119,548 cuts.   Through November, job-cut announcements have reached 1,795,292, nearly 3 times more than were announced in all of 2000 and 39% more than the combined job cuts in 2000 and 1999.
  How extraordinary is the pace of job cutting this year?   Since 1993, when Challenger began its monthly tabulations, through 2000, the average monthly job-cut figure was 46,349.   This year, the monthly average is 163,208.
  More than half the cuts this year (870,543) have come from just 5 industries, led by telecommunications, which increased its year-to date total by 9.4% in November to 292,756.   Telecommunications job cuts this year are nearly 12 times greater than the 11-month total in 2000 (24,518).   November marked the sixth time this year that telecommunications led all other industries in planned down-sizing (25,178), even though job cuts in this sector fell 41% from an October figure of 42,347.   Among November's top 5 job-cutting industries, the fifth-ranked chemical segment experienced the biggest surge in announced cuts, going from 1,908 in October to 15,824 in November."

Karen Kaplan & Alex Pham _Los Angeles Times_ pg C1
Industry Down-turn Hasn't Killed Tech's Big Appetite for Top Talent
"Though more than 800K workers have lost their jobs with technology companies this year, it took Kevin G only 6 weeks to find one.   Gibbs, a Stanford University senior who will graduate in June with bachelor's & master's degrees in computer science, interviewed with such high-tech all-stars as Apple Computer Inc., Raytheon Co. & NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory.   After considering opportunities that would pay from the mid-$60Ks to the mid-$90Ks, Gibbs took a job with IBM Corp. in Cambridge, MA, where he will be a software engineer in Big Blue's advanced technological group...
There [are] still [allegations of] a shortage of skilled workers.   In one sense, technology companies are like the products they sell.   Obsolete equipment is continually replaced by newfangled gear.   In the same vein, workers whose skills no longer are deemed critical are let go even as a new wave of hires comes on board to create the next generation of products.   The Information Technology Association of America [ITAA, a lobbying organization for tech executives] estimates US firms needed more than 900K additional tech workers this year -- & were able to hire only 475K.
The losers in this harsh equation of supply & demand have been the troops in the e-revolution...   The winners are specialized engineers who help wring out costs & salespeople who can inject revenues.   Other industries scrounging for technical workers include bio-technology, aerospace & defense & petroleum, head-hunters say.
These days, salary hikes range from 0.6% for network administrators to 6.2% for chief information officers, said William M Mercer, Inc., a compensation consulting firm.   Total compensation is often lower because stock-option grants & bonuses have all but evaporated.
The number of bachelor's degrees in computer science & engineering has doubled over the last 4 years, from 8K to an estimated 16K this year.
More than 163K [H-1B] visa applications were approved during the last fiscal year -- about 60% of them [nearly 98K] for technical jobs.   The program has drawn intense criticism from some labor & immigration groups, which claim the visas have been used to bring in cheaper over-seas talent, & not to fill specialized positions for which there are no American workers."

Karen Kaplan & Alex Pham _Los Angeles Times_ pg C5
Industry Downturn Hasn't Killed Tech's Big Appetite for Top Talent
"Among specific skills in demand are data base administrators, Java programmers, disaster recovery specialists, network engineers who link computers, & systems engineers who can galvanize a company's many disparate technologies."


Howard Wilkinson _Cincinnati Enquirer_
2001 September 11 evokes echoes of 1941 December 07
"Before the attack on the U.S. Navy in Pearl Harbor, Cincinnati was no more interested in fighting a foreign war than most of America.   Isolationist feelings were strong.   Cincinnati was, after all, the home of one of the principal voices of 'America First' politics -- U.S. senator Robert A. Taft.   But events half a world away in the Hawaiian Islands changed all that.   'Everyone is going to do his part to make Japanese the prevalent language in hell.', Cincinnati Mayor James G. Stewart declared on Dec. 7, after news of the attacks had spread through the city.   On Sunday and Monday, Cincinnatians gathered around cathedral-style radios to listen to the latest reports of the devastation in the Pacific.   In Cincinnati, officials increased police security around the city water works and private industries that had defense contracts, of which there were many.   Wright Aeronautical Company, in the Mill Creek Valley, was one.   It had been turning out engines for military planes months before Pearl Harbor [and manufactured the ones that propelled the Enola Gay to end the war]."






_San Diego Union-Tribune_ pg C2
Many see a quarter-point Fed rate cut today
"The Federal Reserve, faced with an economy suffering through a recession & shedding jobs at the fastest pace in 2 decades, is widely expected to cut interest rates today for the 11th time this year...   on Friday when the gov't reported that the unemployment rate shot up to 5.7% in November as 331K more Americans lost their jobs, bringing total job losses over the past 2 months to 800K, the largest total in 2 years."

_San Diego Union-Tribune_ pg C3
Some Enron bonuses come under scrutiny
"Todd Zywicki, a law professor & bankruptcy expert at George Mason University [said] 'It has at least the smell of fraudulent conveyance.'...   $50M given to traders...   Enron distributed an additional $55M to 500 employees 2 days before filing for bankruptcy protection as an incentive for them to remain with the company while Enron works to emerge from Chapter 11.   Enron laid off about 4K of 7.5K employees at its Houston head-quarters the day after filing for bankruptcy with a promise that each would receive a $4.5K severance payment."

_NYTimes News Service_/_San Diego Union-Tribune_ pg C12
Fiat to cut 6K jobs in revamp; CEO quits
"Roberto Testore, the chief executive of Fiat Auto, resigned yesterday as Fiat SpA, the parent company, announced a restructuring plan...   the world's 8th-largest auto-maker in terms of vehicles sold... will close or over-haul 18 plants & lay off 6K workers worldwide by 2004...   GM owns a 20% stake in Fiat Auto & Fiat owns 5.6% of GM as part of a relationship that extends to sharing power-train & purchasing operations in Europe.   Fiat includes the Fiat brand in addition to Alfa Romeo & Lancia..."

_Los Angeles Times_ pg C2
Major oil firms charged with price fixing
"A group of independent service station operators in Los Angeles told a federal judge Monday that 3 major oil companies have fixed prices & raised rents in a bid to drive them out of business.   The dealers charge that Shell Oil Co., ChevronTexaco Corp. & Saudi Refining, Inc. have conspired to fix prices since 1998 under a joint venture, called Equiva Services, to refine & market their products...   Before the joint venture, there were 2500 independent dealers across the country.   Today there are 1100, said [Fred] Dagher, who operated 13 locations 2 years ago...   Dagher said the average monthly rent for independent service station operators has increased to $8900 from $2500 in 1998...   39 dealers... plaintiffs..."

Stuart Silverstein _Los Angeles Times_ pp C1 & C5
Economic Non-Recovery
"Edward E. Leamer... said the 9 USA recessions since WW2 have been followed by economic expansions typically in the 4% to 5% range.   But he predicted that this recovery will be followed by several years of annual growth, as measured by the GDP, hovering around 2% to 3%...   Specifically, the UCLA forecast calls for the US jobless rate to rise from 4.7% this year to 6%, the highest since 1994, next year...   the state's [California's] unemployment rate will climb from 5.2% this year to 6% next year.   The California Legislative Analyst's Office has forecast even higher joblessness next year, predicting a rate of 6.7%...   a growing number of analysts say that the brunt of the state's recession will be borne by the [SF] Bay Area, particularly Silicon Valley in Santa Clara county, because of its reliance on high-tech spending...   But in San Diego & in the counties surrounding Los Angeles, expansion is predicted to continue, albeit at a more moderate pace."

_Reuters_/_Los Angeles Times_ pg C4
IBM announced deployment of the privacy violating cripple chip
"The number of new bankruptcy filings between July & September was 359,518, a rise of 14% over the same period last year but down 10% from the record 400,394 filed in the 2nd quarter.   In the 12-month period to the end of September, bankruptcy filings rose 14% to 1,437,354 compared with a year ago.   Experts expect bankruptcies to top 1.5M this year."
Privacy links


Edward T. Pound _US News & World Report_
easy path to the USA for 3 of the 2001-09-11 hijackers
2004-04-10: apfn discussion: Visa Express & 2001/09/11 hijackers





Dana Trantham _Los Angeles Times_ pg C18
Recession Idling Millions, but ITAA still lobbies for increased supply of cheap, easily subjugated foreign guest-workers
"As the recession continues to deepen, idling millions, I would have thought the Information Technology Association of America [ITAA] would tone down its pitch ['Industry Down-Turn Hasn't Killed Tech's Big Appetite for Top Talent', 2001-12-09].   Instead, they are peddling the same skills-shortage song & dance.   Does Richard Spitz really believe that the 'ton of people available' are unable to retool & acquire 'hot' skills?   Does he really believe that what these technology workers already know is of no value.   I'll bet not.   Spitz & others know that H-1Bs are beholden to their employers for immigration sponsorship.   During the Internet boom, they got half of what native-born workers were paid because leaving their present employer meant they would lose sponsorship.   They don't have the 'hot' skills he refers to.   It's a smoke-screen.   They are young, cheap & easy to take advantage of."
NBER says recession that troughed in 2001 April ended 2001 November.   The stock market crashed 2000-03-10.   The STEM job markets were already diving by 2000 September, and general job markets in mid-2001.   STEM product sales were tanking all through 2001 and 2002.   Job markets still had not fully recovered by the end of 2016.


2001-12-17 14:08EST
Mark Gongloff _CNN_/_Money_
Good riddance, 2001: Silver linings were few as first recession hit USA in a decade. (with graphs)



Julia Lane, Kelly S. Mikelson, Patrick T. Sharkey & Douglas Wissoker _The Urban Institute_
Low-Income & Low-Skilled Workers' Involvement in Non-Standard Employment


Walter E. Williams _Capitalism Magazine_
Tax-Payer Hand-Outs in the Name of "National Security"
"Farmers sent their lobbyists to Washington to tell congressmen that recent 'terrorist attacks have bolstered the argument that food production is vital to the national interest'.   In response, Congress is rushing to enact HR2646, which would add an extra $69G to already planned farm hand-outs.   The earlier bill was titled the Agriculture Act of 2001.   After the terrorist attack, it was renamed the Farm Security Act of 2001, taking into account the newly discovered fact that food is 'vital to national interest'.   It passed 291 to 120."






Patrick Benintend _Amazon_
Review of Fred C. Kelly _The Wright Brothers: A Biography_


2001-12-26 (updated 2002-08-15 14:41EDT)
George Hager
Economic numbers befuddle even the best


2001-12-27 Michael Liedtke _abc News_/_AP_
Dot-Com Death Toll Doubled This Year: Staggering Losses But Stronger Survivors
"The dot-com death toll doubled this year, with at least 537 Internet companies either going out of business or seeking refuge in bankruptcy court, according to statistics released today.   This year's casualties joined 225 dot-coms that perished during 2000, said Webmergers.com, a San Francisco-based deal maker that has tracked the rise & fall of the Internet economy."

Carl Larsen _San Diego Union-Tribune_ pg C1
No relief in sight: County home prices, rents keep climbing
"Waitress DG fears she will be priced out of the San Diego rental market even though hundreds of new units are being built across the street [9th Street] from the Cortez Hill restaurant where she works...   Rents at the 100-unit complex will start at $1185 a month for 1-bed-room units, with 38 rent-restricted units reserved for lower-income tenants...   El Cortez Apartments where rents start at $1K...
  Discovery condominium project... where prices begin at $199K...   'The availability of traditional single-family or lower density land for attached homes continues to shrink.', [Martin Lighterink] said...
  Home building in the county remains far below the levels of the late 1980s.   Analysts say the reason is that builders & funding sources have learned a lesson from the steep down-turn of the early 1990s when hundreds of new homes went begging for buyers.   Builders also say a proliferation of fees & restrictions on new development has brought a slower pace to the industry...   builders have sharply curtailed condominium construction in recent years, citing sky-rocketing legal & insurance costs due to construction-defect claims...
  the concern is growing over the region's long-standing inability to house working people...   'We're hearing it from the (San Diego Regional) Economic Development Corp., which is talking about recruitment & retention problems among employees.   And even the corner restaurant sees it.', [Betsy Morris, chief executive of the San Diego Housing Commission] said...
  The situation is markedly different for those already inside the tent -- present day [mortgage payers]...   According to the last report by DataQuick Information Systems, the median house price in the county for November was $274K, $1K below the record set in September & $31K above the 2001 January median price... expects prices for San Diego county homes to increase 6% next year.   At the U of San Diego, professor Alan Gin said he is expecting a 5% increase...
  For the 2nd time in 5 years [DG] fears she'll soon be thrust into a rental market that is increasingly unaffordable, with vacancy rates under 5% in most areas...   $770 a month she now pays."


Tara Teichgraeber _Phoenix Business Journal_
More mid-size firms sending work abroad
"By year's end, U.S. companies of all sizes will have spent roughly $7G for over-seas programming help & other out-sourced work, according to Adventis consulting group.   A tactic once used only by the largest companies, now mid-size firms are sending more work abroad, too, & it will account for 10% of all U.S. companies using off-shore programmers in 2005, according to Forrester Research of Massachusetts.   That's a huge increase from the 1K doing so now.
Integrated Information Systems Inc., which has conducted several rounds of lay-offs since November of last year, now sends 70% of its programming work for Fortune 50-size clients to India, said general manager of the India office, Vijay Bhima Rao."




_USA Today_/_Reuters_
Internet Job Losses Ease in December
"Internet companies in December announced the smallest number of monthly job cuts in the past 1.5 years, a report said Monday.   Challenger Gray & Christmas, a Chicago-based out-placement firm, said job losses at dot-com companies totaled 2,403, down from 2.901 in November and well below the 10,459 job cuts announced in December last year.   It was the fourth time in 6 months that the number of planned dot-com job cuts fell.   But Internet job cuts for all of 2001 were 100,925, more than 2 1/2 times above the total last year."

2001 December
Jon Boroshok _Optimize_
Most Lay-Offs Are Not Fair or Rational (pdf)
"Just a year ago, IT employees such as experienced Java developers were in short supply and high demand.   Now, many of those same workers see their positions treated like disposable equipment that can be kept -- or not -- to help achieve financial ratios that please Wall Street...   Companies cut personnel not because they're losing money, but because a Wall Street analyst -- not even a company board member -- expected a higher quarterly profit...   Exempt employees often work longer, but if they miss work, we use that 40-hour figure to prorate pay -- so people who regularly work a 60-hour week for the same pay 'give away' 50% of their time...   It's also a way to drive down salaries.   As the economy tumbles and unemployment rises, the labor shortage of the past few years has disappeared.   We begged for foreign workers to be allowed into this country on H-1B visas and successfully used them to create a supply of tech drones willing to trade work-life balance for steady work -- even for less money.   But now that times are tough, H-1B workers aren't the first to be down-sized, proving that it was their long hours and lower salaries that made them attractive in the first place.   Businesses talk a good game about concern for employees, but the bottom line remains the bottom line.   Laid-off tech workers -- even those who were high performers -- often find that new jobs pay less than their previous positions."

_Syntel Inc_
Body Shopper Syntel and IDC Say: Off-shore is On Track for a Growing Number of Companies
"According to International Data Corporation (IDC) US based companies will more than triple their off-shore out-sourcing spending from $5.5G in 2000 to more than $17.6G in 2005."

_National Academies Press_
Building a Work-Force for the Information Economy
"The following calculation is a 'back-of-the-envelope' calculation that provides approximate magnitudes; it is not meant to be mistaken for a rigorous analysis.

  1. The Category 1 IT work-force of about 2.5M is about 1.8% of the US work-force (140M).
  2. The overall US work-force is about 50% of the national population of about 275M.
  3. According to the US Census, the number of individuals in the 15-year age bracket from ages 50 to 65 is about 40M.   Approximately 1/15 of this number, or about 2.7M, enter this age bracket every year.
  4. Thus, the number of IT professionals aged 50 to 65 is about 1.8% x 50% x 40M = 357K.   (Note that this is an overestimate of this category, because IT is a field in which workers are relatively young.)
  5. One published source indicates an unemployment rate of about 17% for programmers over the age of 50.   [Laura Didio 1998-01-12 ComputerWorld 'Over the Hill?']   Thus, the number of unemployed IT professionals is 17% x 357K = 60,700.   (Note that this number is much higher than the committee has been able to confirm.)
  6. The 1994 AARP study referred to in the main body of the text indicated that about 25% of older applicants for information systems jobs were unfavorably treated because of their age.   If all of the 60,700 unemployed programmers over 50 are capable of doing the work entailed by new jobs, the number of older programmers who are unfavorably treated because of their age and who can do the work required by new jobs is 25% x 60,700 = 15,200.
This number would increase yearly by 1/15 x 15,200, or 1,010 per year."

_National Center for Policy Analysis_
"Information age businesses scored a major victory against the American worker last year.   Despite lay-offs in the info-tech industry totaling more than 250K workers, industry lobbyists convinced Congress that they were actually experiencing a drastic labor shortage, ushering in sharp increases in the number of H1-B visas for foreign workers to 115K annually.   Now they claim that's not enough...   In 1997 August, ComputerWorld magazine reported a 17% rate of unemployment for computer programmers over the age of 50.   And Latinos and blacks are virtually invisible in these lucrative occupations...   House Subcommittee on Immigration Chairman Lamar Smith (R-TX) is keeping a close eye on the number of industry lay-offs as well as gathering the testimony of American workers with lengthy resumes who cannot gain even initial job interviews."

Mary Ellen Podmolik _Community News Project_
Diversity Keeps Illinois Economy Afloat Even in Stormy Times
"The Illinois Department of Employment Security predicts that employment in all industries will grow 12.7% between 1998 and 2008...   In 1998 Chicago had Illinois' highest per annum salary with an average annual pay of $37,752.   It ranked 12th in highest wages among 313 metropolitan areas surveyed in the U.S...   More than 60% of Illinois exports are in the high-tech sector, according to the Illinois Department of Commerce and Community Affairs...   While still lower than it was in the early 1990s, Illinois' jobless rate is slowly rising.   By 2001 January, the state's unemployment rate was 4.8%, according to the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.   A full .6% higher than in 2000 January, the jobless rate in Illinois has not been this high at the beginning of the calendar year since there was a 5% jobless rate in 1997 January...   As the economy started to slow in the second half of 2000, lay-offs in the retail and automotive sectors were especially hard on Illinois.   For the entire year, Illinois-headquartered companies announced more job cuts than any other state, a stunning 72,641 cuts, says John Challenger of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a Chicago-based outplacement firm that tracks corporate downsizing trends.   The first half of 2001 has not seen a great improvement.   Nationally, 2000 December through 2001 February were 3 consecutive months in which more than 100k job cuts were announced each month throughout the nation, the first time that's happened since Challenger, Gray & Christmas began tracking lay-offs in 1993.   In Illinois, 21,894 job cuts were announced in January and February, making it the fourth heaviest state for job cuts."

_Commission on Professionals in Science and Technology_
Master's Degree Enrollments

NAICSTitleSan Diego County, CALeon County, FL
5112Software publishers$92,067$87,501
5415Computer systems design and related services$72,177$64,550
541511Custom computer programming services$75,583$67,180
541512Computer systems design services$71,217$59,846
54169Other technical consulting services$73,914$26,893
State and County Employment and Wages from Covered Employment and Wages

_San Diego Union-Tribune_
Special Report: Technology Survivors
"At least 592 Internet companies have shut down nationwide since last year, according to the web site Webmergers.con. Yet this death toll represents no more than 8% of the total of venture-backed dot-coms."

Paul Osterman _International Labor Organization_ pg 6
Flexibility & Commitment in the US Labour Market (pdf)
"The Wall Street Journal, for example recently ran a lead story with the head-line: 'In Current Expansion, As Business Booms, So, Too, Do Layoffs [2000-03-13 pg A1]'.   The story went on to report that according the Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc., a personnel consulting firm, announced lay-offs in 1999 were the highest level in a decade &, at 675K were well above the 111,285 in 1989...   The best systematic way of addressing this issue is to draw upon the Dislocated Workers Survey conducted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics as part of the Current Population Survey."

Morton C. Orman _The 14-Day Stress Cure_ (quoted in Rita Kasperak _LATimes_
Ain't Over Till It's Over: Dot-coms may dwindle, but un-paid over-time goes on.
"Retained workers are asked to do the work of 2 or 3 individuals with little appreciation or acknowledgement.   Their salaries are not increased commensurately or perhaps even at all.   The resources made available to them are often lean or non-existent.   At the same time, the demands on their productivity might be significantly increased."

National Academy of Sciences; Committee on Work-force Needs in Information Technology; Computer Science & TeleCommunications Board; Board on Testing & Assessment; Board on Science, Technology & Economic Policy; Office of Scientific & Engineering Personnel; National Research Council Characterizing the Work-force Problem
Building a WorkForce for the Information Economy
alternate link (pdf)
(citing 1999-12-10 _USA Today_ pg A-1)
"As for lay-offs in the IT sector, they are considerable.   For example, the out-placement firm of Challenger, Gray, & Christmas reported that, over the first 11 months of 1999, the computer industry had laid off 60K employees.10 This number is equal to approximately 3% of total employment in the 'computer services' industry, as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics."

National Academy of Sciences; Committee on Work-force Needs in Information Technology; Computer Science & TeleCommunications Board; Board on Testing & Assessment; Board on Science, Technology & Economic Policy; Office of Scientific & Engineering Personnel; National Research Council 2001 "Characterizing the Work-force Problem"
Building a WorkForce for the Information Economy
alternate link (pdf)
(citing Richard B. Freeman 1973 "A Cobweb Model of the Supply & Starting Salaries of Engineers" _Industrial & Labor Relations Review_ vol 30 #2 pp 236-248)
"Rising compensation attracts into a field more people who are willing to work (increasing the current supply), decreases demand for those workers, & signals to those capable of being trained to begin studying for these jobs (increasing the future supply of new entrants)...   To the extent that compensation does not rise, the signal is not sent to labor market entrants, & thus the potential labor force for these occupations is sparser than it would otherwise be.
  Potential workers seeing rising compensation in IT will move preferentially into the IT field by preparing themselves by education (in the case of students selecting courses of study) or by retraining in the appropriate disciplines for IT work (in the case of workers in other occupations).
  Typically, the greater are the incentives provided by employers to induce workers into the occupation of interest, the quicker & greater will be the response by potential entrants."

2001 December
_Tech Mar Com_
Are Most Lay-Offs Carried Out Fairly? No (pdf)

1999 January - 2001 December
_BLS_ Worker Displacement 1999-2001
"During the 1999 January through 2001 December period, 4.0M workers were displaced from jobs they had held for at least 3 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the US Department of Labor reported today. The number of displaced workers increased from 3.3M in 1997 January through 1999 December."

2000 April - late 2001
_News Factor_ announced lay-offs
"From 2000 April, when the Nasdaq freefall began, until late 2001, job cuts in the Internet economy sky-rocketed, peaking in 2001 April when 17,554 people were laid off in the sector.   To date, a total of 147,285 dot-com jobs have been slashed, according to Challenger's running tally."

2001 July - December
_Working People_
Lay-Off Score-Card

2001 December
The End of the Mythos of the "New Economy'

2001 December
Urey R. Miller _Mechanical Engineering_
Supply, Demand, and H-1B
"Perhaps the reason so many engineering students do not want to go into engineering is that they are able to earn more money in other segments of the economy.   More students would become practicing engineers if the demand were such that the rewards made it more attractive.   What the H-1B visa bill does is to increase the supply of engineers (perhaps at a lower compensation) and to help satisfy the demand.   The decreased demand, in turn, then acts only to decrease the rewards.   Would it not seem logical that if the rewards for engineers were comparable or greater than those of other segments of industry, there would not be such a shortage of engineers.   The H-1B visa bill addresses only the supply side of the equation by providing industry with more engineers.   In the short term, this may be good for industry; however, I believe it is not in the best long-term interest of the engineering profession.   Let industry provide compensation commensurate with the true demand, and, in the long term, there should not be a shortage of engineers."

Glenn R. Jackson _American Reformation_
Enron and the H-1B American Worker Replacement Program: The Corporate Scandal You Are Not Hearing About

_Project Censored_
Silicon Valley Executives Use/Abuse Guest-Workers and Immigrants to Keep Salaries Depressed

_BigCharts.com_ S&P Retail Index
Note the signs of weakness shown in the dip from 1998 July through November, relatively flat 1999, and the drop all through 2000.

AAA southern California fuel prices
AAA national fuel prices
AAA state by state

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