Jobs Dearth
(crunch, deficiency, deicit, drought, famine, inadequacy, insufficiency, lack, lacuna, paucity, pinch, scantiness, scarcity, shortfall, shortage, under-supply, want of real, long-term employment opportunities)

plug: graphs prepared using Mariner Calc

updated: 2021-10-08

Consumer Price Index Employment Graphs
Education UnEmployment Insurance
Visas War Casualties
Crime Data
Challenger, Gray & Christmas
lay-off announcements
Conference Board
(leading economic indicators,
job ad index,
consumer confidence
jgo Resume jgo Reading Room
jgo Econ Data jgo Econ News Bits
jgo's Links  
jgo's Work in Progress
Kermit's home page
Page Bottom
  "Res ipsa loquitur."
(The facts speak for themselves.)
 

Estimations of Jobs Dearth/Insufficiency/Shortfall/Shortage
🚧 construction zone warning barrier 🚧 experimental 🥽 🥼 🦺 ⚗ 📈


estimates of jobs dearth/insufficiency/short-fall/shortage by sex

estimates of jobs dearth/insufficiency/short-fall/shortage by sex (since 2000)

estimated optimal, actual, and dearth of employment for all men
based on:

LNU02000001 (men employed)
LNU02000002 (women employed)
LNU02000000 (aggregate employed)
LNU02000006 ("blacks" employed)
LNU02032183 ("Asians" employed)
LNU02000003 ("whites" employed)
LNU02000009 ("Hispanics"/"Latinos" employed)
retrieved via https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/srgate

LNU00000001 (CNIP16+ men M)
LNU00000002 (CNIP16+ women M)
LNU00000000 (CNIP16+ aggregate)
LNU00000006 (CNIP16+ "blacks")
LNU00032183 (CNIP16+ "Asians")
LNU00000003 (CNIP16+ "whites")
LNU00000009 (CNIP16+ "Hispanics"/"Latinos")

CNIP16+ = civilian, non-institutionalized population, 16 years & older

LNU02300001 (employed/CNIP16+ ratio men)
LNU02300002 (employed/CNIP16+ ratio women)
LNU02300000 (employed/CNIP16+ ratio aggregate)
LNU02300006 (employed/CNIP16+ ratio "blacks")
LNU02332183 (employed/CNIP16+ ratio "Asians")
LNU02300003 (employed/CNIP16+ ratio "whites")
LNU02300009 (employed/CNIP16+ ratio "Hispanics"/"Latinos")


men 16 years & older employed (by race &/or ethnicity)

LNU02000001 (employed men)
LNU02000007 (employed black men)
LNU02032301 (employed Asian men)
LNU02000004 (employed white men)
LNU02000010 (employed hispanic/latino men)


civilian non-institutionalized population of men 16 years & older (by race &/or ethnicity)

LNU00000001 (CNIP16+ men)
LNU00000007 (CNIP16+ black men)
LNU00032301 (CNIP16+ Asian men)
LNU00000004 (CNIP16+ white men)
LNU00000010 (CNIP16+ hispanic/latino men)


ratios of men employed/ civilian male population (by race &/or ethnicity)

LNU02300001 (employed/CNIP16+ men)
LNU02300007 (employed/CNIP16+ black men)
LNU02332301 (employed/CNIP16+ Asian men=LNU02032301/LNU00032301)
LNU02300004 (employed/CNIP16+ white men)
LNU02300010 (employed/CNIP16+ hispanic/latino men)


estimates of full or optimum employment levels for men (99% of highest ratio on record) by race &/or ethnicity with idealized total employment equality


estimates of jobs dearth/insufficiency/short-fall/shortage for men (by "race" &/or ethnicity)

estimates of jobs dearth/insufficiency/short-fall/shortage for men (by "race" &/or ethnicity; since 1999)

estimated optimal, actual, and dearth of employment for all "black" men

estimated optimal, actual, and dearth of employment for all "Asian" men

estimated optimal, actual, and dearth of employment for all "white" men

estimated optimal, actual, and dearth of employment for all "Latino"/"Hispanic" men

🚧 construction zone warning barrier 🚧 experimental 🥽 🥼 🦺 ⚗ 📈
and maybe later:

LNU02000000 (employed all)
LNU02000006 ("blacks" employed)
LNU02032183 ("Asians" employed)
LNU02000003 ("whites" employed)
LNU02000009 ("Hispanics"/"Latinos" employed)

LNU00000000 (CNIP16+ all)
LNU00000006 (CNIP16+ "blacks")
LNU00032183 (CNIP16+ "Asians")
LNU00000003 (CNIP16+ "whites")
LNU00000009 (CNIP16+ "Hispanics"/"Latinos")

LNU02300000 (employed/CNIP16+ all)
LNU02300006 (employed/CNIP16+ ratio "blacks")
LNU02332183 (employed/CNIP16+ ratio "Asians")
LNU02300003 (employed/CNIP16+ ratio "whites")
LNU02300009 (employed/CNIP16+ ratio "Hispanics"/"Latinos")

Plus a fudge-factor for each, trying to reflect personal house-wife/house-husband preference from the rare article I recall: nearly all male-type-people over the age of 15 (yes, even "seniors"/"seasoned citizens" would prefer economic or compensated employment, and the survey said about half of female-type-people.

"From 1900 to 1930, the proportion of females over 16 in the labor force fluctuated at about 20%. After the beginning of the Second World War, employment outside the home rose very rapidly, and except for areversal after the war, it kept on rising at a remarkably steady pace: 30% in 1941, 40% in 1960, 50% in 1980, 60% in 2000... Most married women did not work because they wanted to. They needed the money to help pay the mortgage and put the children through college. In an economy of high inflation, falling real [inflation-adjusted] wages, and frequent lay-offs, the only way that most USA families could get ahead wasfor both the husband and the wife to bring home a pay-check. " --- David Hackett Fischer 2005 _Liberty and Freedom_ pg656 (citing _Historical Statistics of the United States of America_; BLS _Employment & Earnings_; James T. Patterson 1996, 1997 _Grand Expectations: The USA 1945-1974_ pg644)

I am mildly concerned at the jaggies, discontinuity artifacts, in some of the graphs. The ones I've looked at closely seem legitimate reflections of reality (or at least available BLS data). But will be looking at them some more.

(BLS/Census used to try to track employment of everyone over 13.)

The following 5 "jobs gap" graphs are from data-sub-sets lacking deep enough historical figures to reflect the best full-employment levels of the past. They use data going back only to 1981, rather than the immediate post-WW2 years, when job/employment markets were more robust. As a result, they provide a rosier picture than is the reality

aggregate estimated jobs gap (16-years & older)

aggregate estimated jobs gap (18-years & older)

aggregate estimated jobs gap (25-64 years old)

aggregate estimated jobs gap only (25-64 years old)

aggregate estimated jobs gap (65-years & older)

Detailed Occupational Categories The following 2 graphs are from data-sub-sets lacking deep enough historical figures to reflect the best full-employment levels of the past. They use data going back only to 1984 or later, rather than the immediate post-WW2 years, when job/employment markets were more robust. As a result, they provide a rosier picture than is the reality. These data are also from a sub-sub-sample such that they have a low reliability. There are gaps where the sub-sub-sample is so tiny as to give meaningless results. Figures for occupations with only a few thousand practitioners are especially sketchy, but some of the larger aggregate categories, and most of the annual figures for categories with 70K+ practitioners are a little better.

Full Employment Index by detailed occupation (1 = good, 2+ = very bad)

Full Employment Index by detailed occupation (1 = good, 2+ = very bad; scale 0.9x to 2.9x)

Estimations of Jobs Dearth/Insufficiency/Shortfall/Shortage
🚧 construction zone warning barrier 🚧 experimental 🥽 🥼 🦺 ⚗ 📈


Definitions & Descriptions:

Abbreviations: (skip)
pop = CivPop = CNIP16+ =
civilian, non-institutionalized population 16 years old & older     =     employed + not-employed     =     employed + UEASW + NILF     CLF16+ + NILF
UEASW =
unemployed and actively seeking work
CLF16+ =
civilian labor force 16 years old & older = employed + unemployed and actively seeking work     =     employed + UEASW
NILF =
not in labor force = not employed and not actively seeking work
unemployment rate = U3 =
the percentage     UEASW/CLF16+ * 100     (this is the most commonly reported indicator)
not-employed =
NILF + UEASW
EmpPT =
employed part-time
EmpFT =
employed full-time
EmpPTForNonEconReasons =
employed part-time for non-economic reasons (i.e. part-time work was freely chosen as a personal preference and not because full-time jobs are not available)
EmpPTForEconReasons =
employed part-time for economic reasons (i.e. full-time jobs are not available or workable due to financial/economic constraints)
Emp/Pop = Emp/Pop ratio = employed/CNIP16+
numbers in category who are employed as per cent of civilian population for the category = number employed/civilian non-institutionalized population for the category * 100 (where category can be age range, sex, race/ethnicity, occupation, industry, education level, citizen, non-citizen, native, foreign-born...)
Discouraged =
Not in Labor Force, Searched For Work (within last 12 months, but not this month) and Available, Discouraged with Reasons For Not Currently Looking
Marginally Attached =
Not in Labor Force, Searched For Work (within last 12 months, but not this month) and Available
LFPR =
labor force participation rate(s) = (UEASW+employed)/CNIP (for category)
dearth =
scarcity, lack, dear, shortage, insufficiency, inadequate supply of jobs

--- historical ---
CNIP14+ =
civilian, non-institutionalized population 14 years old & older
CLF14+ =
civilian labor force 14 years old & older = employed + unemployed and actively seeking work

Civilian, non-institutionalized population, 16 years and older (wikipedia)

glossary (BLS)


📧 e-mail jgo📧

(moc.liamg@8ottognhoj)


External links may expire at any time.
Neither this page, nor the opinions expressed or implied in it are endorsed by Michael Badnarik, Ron Paul, Binyamin L. Jolkovsky, Bob Barr, Walter E. Williams, Wayne Allyn Root, Thomas Sowell, Warner Brothers, Gary Johnson, Peter Brimelow, president Donald Trump, nor by my hosts, Kermit and Rateliff.
Challenger, Gray & Christmas
lay-off announcements
Conference Board
(leading economic indicators,
job ad index,
consumer confidence
Consumer Price Index Employment Graphs
Education UnEmployment Insurance
Visas War Casualties
Crime Data
jgo Resume jgo Reading Room
jgo Econ Data jgo Econ News Bits
jgo's Links  
jgo's Work in Progress
Kermit's home page
Page Top

Page Top